From our Presidenttag:channingrealestate.com,2008:/blog//12008-09-19T17:04:07ZSee all properties in Cambridge, MA. and Somerville, MA. Find out what's new to market; What sold; What isn't selling! Your complete guide to the Cambridge, MA. and Somerville, MA. real estate market! Movable Type 3.35Sellers' Saturday!tag:channingrealestate.com,2008:/blog//1.422008-09-19T16:50:19Z2008-09-19T17:04:07ZThe crisp air is here again and it's time for one of our Sellers' Saturdays. I'd like to invite all of you to this event. It's a great workshop that we offer from time to time as a complimentary service...
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Positive Signs: 60% of the U.S. Can Stop Worrying about Housing Markettag:channingrealestate.com,2008:/blog//1.402008-08-20T14:52:42Z2008-08-20T15:21:59ZA recent bit of research done by an independent federal agency, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (restructured and renamed the Federal Housing Finance Agency earlier this month) indicates that generalizations about an overall housing market downturn are inaccurate....
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s (OFHEO) House Price Index (HPI) tells a different story than the media is reporting. Citing data from home sales and appraisals for refinancing, OFHEO reported in May that 35 states saw a positive home value price change in the first quarter of 2008. In addition, 164 MSAs showed positive first quarter appreciation when compared to the same quarter of 2007.
Just because four states are still falling, and 11 other states continue to try and stabilize doesn’t mean the entire market will continue to take the plunge.
Here's a short summary of the agency's white paper.]]>
Market Trends: Cambridge Real Estate Now vs. Last Yeartag:channingrealestate.com,2008:/blog//1.392008-08-13T17:50:34Z2008-08-19T18:51:04Z I wanted to show you a snapshot of the state of Cambridge real estate this July and compare it with where we were last year. Comparing market performance during the same month in consecutive years gives us a good...
I wanted to show you a snapshot of the state of Cambridge real estate this July and compare it with where we were last year. Comparing market performance during the same month in consecutive years gives us a good idea of big picture trends and helps to keep the effect of seasonal fluctuations out of the data. But it's important to choose the right months. To conclude that a market is doing poorly based on low activity in January, for instance, is to ignore the underlying push and pull of the seasons, specifically that most people prefer not to move in the winter months. But to study market activity in July, when you'd expect the market to be working at near capacity, running at full-throttle, will yield a better picture of the market's overall fitness from year to year.
Let's compare a snapshot of the Cambridge real estate market in July '08 to what was going on in July '07. The chart above shows a variety of statistical indicators. Click on the chart to see a bigger version. Remember, this is a picture of the whole residential market in Cambridge, all property types and all price points.
First off, the number of new properties listed for sale is down 20% from last year. That's our biggest problem in Cambridge: we just don't have enough property to sell. The number of transactions that closed, that is, where title to the property finally passed from the seller to the buyer, is down this July from last July by 25%. But what's more significant is that the number of properties pended, that's when the buyer and seller enter into a contract to buy and sell, respectively, at a future date, has gone down 25% from last July. The number of properties pended is a better indicator of what's happening right now than the number of properties sold, which tends to reflect market activity at some point in the past when the buyer and seller agreed to go through with the sale.
So if less new listings are coming to market and fewer homes are selling, why do I say that we don't have enough property to sell? Doesn't one just about cancel out the other? The answer lies in the fact that the properties that are pending, and after a shorter period of time, too (compare 70 days on the market in '07 versus 58 days in '08), are in the highly desirable price points between $250,000 and $500,000, which, in our market, is very popular with first-time home buyers. On the other hand, we're seeing that a lot of upper end property is not moving. What's left to sell after all is said and done are the properties, albeit very special properties, that appeal to a limited pool of buyers on account of their price.
Another useful indicator is the "Months of Inventory". Basically, its a rate of how quickly the market is being cleared of inventory, specifically, given current market activity and assuming nothing new comes to market, it's the number of months it will take before all the inventory is gone. You could say it's like an indicator of the market's metabolism. A low months-of-inventory is indicative of a seller's market, whereas a high MOI indicates a buyer's market. In the middle, somewhere around six months of inventory, is a normal or neutral market. This equilibrium never lasts very long.
In Cambridge, the MOI based on closed sales shifted from 3 in '07 to 3.2 in '08. It's still a seller's market but the shift, though slight, toward a higher MOI hints at the direction the market is taking. Looking at the absorption rate based on pended sales, we also see a slight increase from 3.6 months in '07 to 3.8 months in '08. This amounts to an increase of just about 6 days! Again, this overall trend is directly affected by the increasing amount of difficult-to-sell inventory lingering on the market. I'll examine the popular price points between $250K and $500K in a future post, and we'll see a slightly different trend there. My point here is that we're seeing a staedy seller's market and compared to the national average of 11.1 months of inventory, we're doing quit well here in Cambridge.
Another piece of good news comes by way of the average price indicators. The average asking price this July is up 16% from last July. That's interesting, but ambitious sellers are not necessarily indicative of steady property values. The average sold price of properties sold in July '08 is only 7% lower than it was at this time last year, but the average price per square foot is down only 2%, indicating that per-unit prices are holding their own. These two figures are significant for two reasons. First, they suggests that the average sold price has shifted down because sales of upper-end properties comprise a smaller part of the overall portfolio of properties that are moving. And second, they indicate that values per square foot are displaying remarkable stability across all price points. A 2% adjustment is rather favorable compared to some of the double digit drops you find in other markets. Prices haven't dropped radically Cambridge since last year despite an uncertain economic outlook. Instead, there's been a modest adjustment. For anyone thinking of buying real estate in Cambridge, let this serve as proof that the Cambridge housing market is resilient and healthy and that Cambridge properties consistently retain value even during times of flux. And, if you've bought property in Cambridge, congratulations on making a wise decision. It's as good time as any to consider selling. You may even see a bidding war right at your own doorstep.
On a final note, it's business as usual in Cambridge. The sold-to-list-price ratio was 98% last July and it's 98% now. Why? The properties that are moving are priced right; with asking prices just 2% away from what buyers are willing to pay. And despite the 16% jump in asking prices, the sold-to-list-price ratio remains unchanged, indicating that the properties that do sell are going for practically the asking price, rather than at a steep discount. If you're a buyer and you see a place you like and you don't want to loose it, put in a serious offer. If you're a seller and you're not getting offers on your property, seriously consider a price improvement because the buyers are out there.
There's one thing about the Cambridge housing market that I hope to see for years to come: motivated buyers and sellers who are sensible about the unique strengths of our very local market and aware of the steady and consistent appreciation in property values coming together to buy and sell property, even in times of flux.
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Wow! Finally something for all of us who strive to achieve the American dream of home ownership! Buy now and get your $7500 tax credit while it lasts!tag:channingrealestate.com,2008:/blog//1.382008-07-30T17:09:03Z2008-07-30T17:20:52ZAs expected, the President today signed the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 in to law. I am pleased that this bill includes the tax credit we, Realtors, lobbied hard to make a reality. The passing of this legislation...
details about the legislation]]>
In Cambridge, it's already happening!tag:channingrealestate.com,2008:/blog//1.372008-07-23T14:40:40Z2008-07-23T15:58:51ZThe results of a recent homeownership study are in and there's one trend in the way American's think about the real estate market that stands out. "Nearly half of all home buyers (44%) believe the housing market will improve once...
homeownership study are in and there's one trend in the way American's think about the real estate market that stands out. "Nearly half of all home buyers (44%) believe the housing market will improve once the new President takes office in January, 2009."
The study reveals a changing tide in public opinion. Despite some confusion about changing mortgage rules and the typical anxiety about making a big purchase, most buyers express an evenhanded sensibility about the market and are willing to make trade-offs in order to buy the house that meets their lifestyle needs.
In Cambridge, it looks like many buyers have realized that oversimplified forecasts of real estate doom and gloom just don't jive with what's happening here. The result is that buyers are taking action, particularly in the first-time buyer price point of $200,000 to $500,000. Each month since January, the number of properties purchased has increasingly surpassed the number of new offerings. The cumulative effect is that, in Cambridge, we just don't have enough inventory and it's not at all uncommon to see a property under contract in just a few days and after a heated bidding war. Imagine that!
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Weichert Insightstag:channingrealestate.com,2008:/blog//1.362008-07-19T22:29:30Z2008-07-19T22:33:39ZHere's a great tip to add instant value if you're selling your home. My wife, Cay, and I always "stage" our property when we're selling. Like we always say at WEICHERT, REALTORS ... IT WORKS!...
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A tribute to the late, great George Carlintag:channingrealestate.com,2008:/blog//1.342008-07-15T16:18:02Z2008-07-15T22:33:54Z "Life's journey is not to arrive at the grave safely in a well preserved body, but rather to skid in sideways, totally worn out, shouting '...holy sh*t ...what a ride!'-George Carlin..."Life's journey is not to arrive at the grave safely in a well preserved body, but rather to skid in sideways, totally worn out, shouting '...holy sh*t ...what a ride!' -George Carlin]]>
Act Now! The Cambridge Condo Market is Ramping Uptag:channingrealestate.com,2008:/blog//1.332008-07-05T16:13:28Z2008-07-09T18:31:28ZContinuing the theme from my previous post, I wanted to take a look at trends in the Cambridge condo market. Here are two graphs that paint a picture of what's been going on recently. Notice the trend in the first...
Notice the trend in the first graph. The number of sold properties and pending or "under contract" properties is growing each month. The market is definitely active as the volume of sales is increasing!
Now take a look at the second graph. It shows how the stock of available inventory is decreasing. Ah hah! Does this mean more and more people are buying at a time when inventory isn't being replenished? Could we be facing an actual shortage of available homes for sale at a time when affordability has improved and the cost of mortgage money is still very attractive? If this trend continues, could we actually face the possibility of price increases in the near future because of a alack of inventory?
My advice is to buy now while the market is on your side. Don't wait for a future market that could be characterized by a shortage of inventory, higher prices and the possibility of higher interest rates! Your best opportunity to take advantage of the American Dream is today, not tomorrow!
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Momentum is building in housing markets across the country: Why you should be out shopping for your new home now while the buying is good!tag:channingrealestate.com,2008:/blog//1.322008-07-01T15:23:29Z2008-07-05T16:04:43ZBased on an online arcticle from CnnMoney.com by Ben Rooney home buyers are taking advantage of plummeting home prices. Here is an excerpt. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said Thursday that the number of existing homes sold during May...
here
.]]>
Home Prices Are Holding Up in the Boston Areatag:channingrealestate.com,2008:/blog//1.312008-06-21T18:46:19Z2008-06-21T19:37:21ZThe Wall Street Journal put out a "cheat sheet" on the ups and downs of local real estate markets in the US. The Boston area made it to their list of "insider tips" about markets that are holding their own....
For today's buyers, this means that shopping for housing bargains is increasingly complicated. The best deals may be where prices have slid the most, but such areas could easily fall a good bit more before hitting bottom. Meanwhile, you'll get few bargains if you buy a home in San Francisco or Manhattan or downtown Boston.
As for our area itself, a Boston brokers sums up the situation quite well:
No one is taking prices higher these days just to see if they can get it, like they used to. But you have to come with realistic expectations. This is a highly desirable area, and you're not going to find a steal.
If you want to read the details about Boston, New York, Chicago, L.A or San Francisco, you can find here
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A Bit of Weichert's Philosophy about Customer Servicetag:channingrealestate.com,2008:/blog//1.302008-04-29T18:39:18Z2008-04-29T19:31:58ZIn a recent message to Weichert affiliates, Jim Weichert, the president and founder of the Weichert family of companies, shares some of his thoughts about customer service. It has been said that the traditional way of doing real estate is...
Boston Globe describes this trend.
It makes absolute sense that if more and more buyers want to communicate by IM chat or text message and seek out real estate professionals on social networking sites, real estate agents should accommodate. But it's misleading to say that technological expertise can replace the essence of salesmanship: personalized service. It never gets old.
Jim Weichert explains.
Personalized Service is Still King.
That's Why People Buy People Before Products or Services.
No one can deny the positive impact the Information Age has had on real
estate. A significant number of buyers search online for a home, and there
are hundreds of real estate blogs and other Web sites that provide
consumers with information about the industry. At the same time, people
have begun relying heavily on e-mail when communicating.
While this is all well and good, please never lose sight of this fact:
While the Internet and e-mail can be effective in delivering information,
it can never replace personalized service. A computer can't close a
transaction, just like an e-mail alone will not typically win you a new
client.
Our business was built on service, and we all need to be salespeople,
first and foremost. Remember to take your clients to tour properties
first-hand and not just virtually. Follow-up on your e-mails with a phone
call the same way you would have for a postcard or mailer.
Remember, people buy people before products or services.
Jim Weichert
We share this philosophy at Weichert, Realtors - Channing Real Estate. While we continue to embrace innovative ways selling real estate, we'll always roll out the red carpet for our clients. It's personalized attention and the human touch that make our services unique.
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Some Counter-Intuitive Advicetag:channingrealestate.com,2008:/blog//1.292008-04-17T18:58:21Z2008-04-17T20:37:05ZBuyer's who plan to stay in their properties for a number of years are at an advantage if they buy before the market finds its "bottom." Here's the caveat: think local. Some towns have a ways to go to reach...
Boston Globe that explains it all.]]>
Local trade paper stotlights Weichert in New Englandtag:channingrealestate.com,2008:/blog//1.282008-04-04T21:46:56Z2008-04-04T22:08:45ZWondering why we affiliated with Weichert, Realtors after twenty years of going it alone? Please read the following article from this week's Broker and Tradesman newspaper... Here's an excerpt. Residential Real Estate Real Estate Market Slump Fuels Weichert Expansion Weichert...
Real Estate Market Slump Fuels Weichert Expansion
Weichert offers a system for everything from recruiting new agents, to managing leads, to running open houses, to doing listing presentations.
Cambridge broker Bill Luther was so impressed that after 20 years of operating his business, Channing Real Estate, he joined Weichert last July. He said his first introduction to the company came through the relocation business that Weichert was funneling to his firm.
"As I began to suspect that the market was changing, I began to think back to the last downturn I experienced in 1989 and 1990, and began to think about how it was a struggle to move through that downturn," said Luther. "I thought aligning myself with a national organization would give my agents lines of incoming business that they would never have been able to have."
I was right
You can access the full article here.]]>
Interesting Times in Union Squaretag:channingrealestate.com,2008:/blog//1.272008-03-26T18:53:52Z2008-03-26T19:51:51ZSomerville's Union Square has been an excavation site the last couple months. It's part of an ambitious project part civic engineering part urban renewal -- and the City says that the contractor is ahead of schedule. There's also a lot...
Union Square: A little pain amid gains]]>
FINALLY! SOME GOOD NEWS!tag:channingrealestate.com,2008:/blog//1.262008-03-25T16:11:48Z2008-03-25T16:48:10ZWhy is it that the local press isn't reporting this? Hey, bad news sells papers. It must be a slow day in the newsroom when you see the same sad story about pets affected by foreclosures that's been syndicated all...
Home sales end their long descent
Home sales posted their largest increases in a year in February...
]]>
I wanted to show you a snapshot of the state of Cambridge real estate this July and compare it with where we were last year. Comparing market performance during the same month in consecutive years gives us a good idea of big picture trends and helps to keep the effect of seasonal fluctuations out of the data. But it's important to choose the right months. To conclude that a market is doing poorly based on low activity in January, for instance, is to ignore the underlying push and pull of the seasons, specifically that most people prefer not to move in the winter months. But to study market activity in July, when you'd expect the market to be working at near capacity, running at full-throttle, will yield a better picture of the market's overall fitness from year to year.
Let's compare a snapshot of the Cambridge real estate market in July '08 to what was going on in July '07. The chart above shows a variety of statistical indicators. Click on the chart to see a bigger version. Remember, this is a picture of the whole residential market in Cambridge, all property types and all price points.
First off, the number of new properties listed for sale is down 20% from last year. That's our biggest problem in Cambridge: we just don't have enough property to sell. The number of transactions that closed, that is, where title to the property finally passed from the seller to the buyer, is down this July from last July by 25%. But what's more significant is that the number of properties pended, that's when the buyer and seller enter into a contract to buy and sell, respectively, at a future date, has gone down 25% from last July. The number of properties pended is a better indicator of what's happening right now than the number of properties sold, which tends to reflect market activity at some point in the past when the buyer and seller agreed to go through with the sale.
So if less new listings are coming to market and fewer homes are selling, why do I say that we don't have enough property to sell? Doesn't one just about cancel out the other? The answer lies in the fact that the properties that are pending, and after a shorter period of time, too (compare 70 days on the market in '07 versus 58 days in '08), are in the highly desirable price points between $250,000 and $500,000, which, in our market, is very popular with first-time home buyers. On the other hand, we're seeing that a lot of upper end property is not moving. What's left to sell after all is said and done are the properties, albeit very special properties, that appeal to a limited pool of buyers on account of their price.
Another useful indicator is the "Months of Inventory". Basically, its a rate of how quickly the market is being cleared of inventory, specifically, given current market activity and assuming nothing new comes to market, it's the number of months it will take before all the inventory is gone. You could say it's like an indicator of the market's metabolism. A low months-of-inventory is indicative of a seller's market, whereas a high MOI indicates a buyer's market. In the middle, somewhere around six months of inventory, is a normal or neutral market. This equilibrium never lasts very long.
In Cambridge, the MOI based on closed sales shifted from 3 in '07 to 3.2 in '08. It's still a seller's market but the shift, though slight, toward a higher MOI hints at the direction the market is taking. Looking at the absorption rate based on pended sales, we also see a slight increase from 3.6 months in '07 to 3.8 months in '08. This amounts to an increase of just about 6 days! Again, this overall trend is directly affected by the increasing amount of difficult-to-sell inventory lingering on the market. I'll examine the popular price points between $250K and $500K in a future post, and we'll see a slightly different trend there. My point here is that we're seeing a staedy seller's market and compared to the national average of 11.1 months of inventory, we're doing quit well here in Cambridge.
Another piece of good news comes by way of the average price indicators. The average asking price this July is up 16% from last July. That's interesting, but ambitious sellers are not necessarily indicative of steady property values. The average sold price of properties sold in July '08 is only 7% lower than it was at this time last year, but the average price per square foot is down only 2%, indicating that per-unit prices are holding their own. These two figures are significant for two reasons. First, they suggests that the average sold price has shifted down because sales of upper-end properties comprise a smaller part of the overall portfolio of properties that are moving. And second, they indicate that values per square foot are displaying remarkable stability across all price points. A 2% adjustment is rather favorable compared to some of the double digit drops you find in other markets. Prices haven't dropped radically Cambridge since last year despite an uncertain economic outlook. Instead, there's been a modest adjustment. For anyone thinking of buying real estate in Cambridge, let this serve as proof that the Cambridge housing market is resilient and healthy and that Cambridge properties consistently retain value even during times of flux. And, if you've bought property in Cambridge, congratulations on making a wise decision. It's as good time as any to consider selling. You may even see a bidding war right at your own doorstep.
On a final note, it's business as usual in Cambridge. The sold-to-list-price ratio was 98% last July and it's 98% now. Why? The properties that are moving are priced right; with asking prices just 2% away from what buyers are willing to pay. And despite the 16% jump in asking prices, the sold-to-list-price ratio remains unchanged, indicating that the properties that do sell are going for practically the asking price, rather than at a steep discount. If you're a buyer and you see a place you like and you don't want to loose it, put in a serious offer. If you're a seller and you're not getting offers on your property, seriously consider a price improvement because the buyers are out there.
There's one thing about the Cambridge housing market that I hope to see for years to come: motivated buyers and sellers who are sensible about the unique strengths of our very local market and aware of the steady and consistent appreciation in property values coming together to buy and sell property, even in times of flux.
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